LEARN. PRACTICE. GROW.Concept and mechanism
A forecast remains useful while its assumptions remain reasonable. If incidents consume half the improvement capacity, present effects and options for scope, sequence, or date. Do not allocate full capacity to both streams. Distinguish uncertainty reducible through learning from a constraint requiring a decision. A driver with unknown compatibility may justify a bounded spike with representative versions, criteria, and an exit decision. Delayed external approval needs ownership and appropriate escalation; repeating an estimate does not remove the dependency.
Guided application
Urgency policy should state criteria, authority, and displaced work. If everything is urgent, the system loses its ability to choose. Before RUN handover, check agreed support and recovery criteria. A green pipeline proves only what was tested. If recovery rehearsal is missing, do not declare full readiness. At the committee, present completion evidence, age, and blockers under comparable context. Those data help decisions; occupied hours and scheduled meetings do not prove the service is closer to being usable.
During migration, a compatibility spike produces a documented decision. The plan reserves RUN capacity and retains recovery rehearsal as acceptance evidence.
Common pitfalls
Fixed dates with invalid assumptions; unlimited investigation; urgency without criteria; removing requirements after failing verification.
Related topics: Learn through small deliveries · Adapt the work system
Forecasts and readiness should reflect current capacity and evidence.
Reference: Continuous integration · PMI-ACP ECO March 2026