← PSM II: facilitation, leadership, and Scrum Master decisions
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Empirical decisions under uncertainty

Use evidence to adapt work without promising certainty that does not exist.

Concept and mechanism

The Scrum Master helps the team and organization use actual information to decide. If every forecast item was completed but the delivered capability is unused, the next conversation should explore the difference between delivery and outcome. The initial forecast remains a reference; it is not a reason to reject learning. Transparency means exposing assumptions, outcomes, and unfinished work. Inspection needs reliable information, and adaptation requires willingness to change when that information contradicts a hypothesis. A team reviewing defects daily while hiding them from planning maintains an activity cycle without correcting direction.

Guided application

In reconciliation work, a director may need a forecast to coordinate consumers. Explain available evidence, a plausible range, and assumptions that may change; do not respond with false precision or refusal to plan. During the Sprint, Developers can adapt the plan and renegotiate scope with the Product Owner while preserving the Sprint Goal and quality. If the goal becomes obsolete, cancellation authority belongs to the Product Owner. An incident does not automatically cancel the Sprint. First understand its impact and let the relevant accountabilities act. Scrum Master support improves decisions without taking over every team decision.

IN PRACTICE

An item exchange preserving the goal and quality can be negotiated; a market decision removing the purpose requires a different discussion.

Common pitfalls

Forecast as guarantee; scope as an immutable contract; item change as automatic cancellation; inspection without adaptation.

Related topics: Goals, increments, and transparent quality · Facilitate participation and difficult decisions

Take this idea with you

Empiricism connects observed information with choices that can change.

Create account

Reference: The Scrum Guide · PSM II; Scrum Guide November 2020; no public numbered exam revision